emergingtrajectories.utils¶

Attributes¶

`_extract_prediction_prompt`
`_extract_prediction_prompt_error`

Classes¶

UtilityHelper

The UtilityHelper class is used to extract predictions from text messages.

Functions¶

`is_numeric`(→ bool)	Checks whether the 'string' passed as an argument can be converted into a numeric value.
`run_forecast`(function_to_call, n, args, *kwargs)

Module Contents¶

emergingtrajectories.utils._extract_prediction_prompt = Multiline-String¶

Show Value

"""You are helping a researcher with a data extraction exercise. You will be provided with a prediction statement and a broader piece of text. Your objective is to extract the specific numerical prediction and provide it as a response. DO NOT qualify your response in any way.

For example, suppose you have the following...

|||---|||
PREDICTION STATEMENT: please predict the probability that the price of Bitcoin will exceed $100,000 by the end of 2024.

TEXT: The probability that bitcoin will exceed $100,000 by the end of 2024 is 0.37.
|||---|||

In the case above, your response would simply be "0.37".

The actual metrics (i.e., prediction) might be provided with formatting. For example...

|||---|||
PREDICTION STATEMENT: The probability that Boeing's (NYSE:BA) share price at the close of markets on or before March 1, 2024 will be $220.00 USD or higher is _____ (value between 0.00 and 1.00).

TEXT: The probability that Boeing's (NYSE:BA) share price at the close of markets on or before March 1, 2024, will be $220.00 USD or higher is **0.65**.
|||---|||

In this case, ignore the asterisks or instructions ("value between 0.00 and 1.00") and provide the correct response, which is 0.65.

The user will provide you with a PREDICTION STATEMENT and TEXT and you need to answer like the above.

On the extremely rare occasion that the TEXT does not have a proper numerical prediction or you are unable to extract it, simply respond with "UNCLEAR".
"""

emergingtrajectories.utils._extract_prediction_prompt_error = 'UNCLEAR'¶

emergingtrajectories.utils.is_numeric(string: str) → bool¶

Checks whether the ‘string’ passed as an argument can be converted into a numeric value.

Parameters:: string – the string in question
Returns:: Boolean value; True if the string can be converted into a numeric value, False otherwise.

emergingtrajectories.utils.run_forecast(function_to_call, n, *args, **kwargs)¶

class emergingtrajectories.utils.UtilityHelper(api_key, model='gpt-4-0125-preview')¶

Bases: object

The UtilityHelper class is used to extract predictions from text messages.

Parameters:

api_key – the OpenAI API key
model – the OpenAI model to use for the extraction process

api_key¶

model = 'gpt-4-0125-preview'¶

extract_prediction(response: str, statement_challenge: str) → float¶

Extracts the prediction value from the response to a statement challenge.

Parameters:

response – the response to the statement challenge (i.e., what was predicted by another LLM)
statement_challenge – the statement challenge – what is being predicted

Returns:

The extracted prediction value as a float. Raises an exception if the prediction cannot be extracted.